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Machine Learning for Improving Sub-Seasonal Forecasting
Lead Companies
Bureau of Reclamation
Lead Researcher (s)
- Ken Nowak
Reclamation concluded the prize competition "Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo" in June 2019 with a symposium hosted at NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, MD. Several winning teams that were able to outperform operational forecasts from NOAA used machine learning Machine Learning for Improving Sub-Seasonal Forecastingtechniques to produce their forecasts. This funding would allow Reclamation to partner with those teams or pursue refinement of their solutions by other means. In addition to improving sub-seasonal forecast skill, Reclamation will be able to build and enhance internal machine learning capacity.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
2020
- Conventional Hydro
Managing Hydrologic Financial Risk in Hydropower Production with Index Insurance Contracts
Lead Companies
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Lead Researcher (s)
- Ben Foster
Hydropower generators rely on stream flows to serve as “fuel,” which can lead to volatility in revenues that is financially disruptive. This vulnerability to hydrologic uncertainty, and the possibility of increased hydrologic variability in the future, suggests that hydropower producers need new tools for managing these financial risks. This study uses an integrated hydro-economic model of the Roanoke River Basin to characterize the financial risk faced by hydropower generators as a result of changes in water supply. Several index-based financial instruments are developed and evaluated using 100-year simulations of Kerr, Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Dam operations. Index basis risk, pricing, and contract design are all explored. Contracts built on average daily inflow are shown to be capable of reducing water supply risk at a range of levels, with even significant levels of risk (i.e. inflows under 75% of average) mitigated at a relatively low cost (under 3% of average revenues).
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
complete
Completion Date
2013
- Marine Energy
- Conventional Hydro
Modeling and Analysis of a Small Hydropower Plant and Battery Energy Storage System Connected as a Microgrid
Lead Companies
University of Washington
Lead Researcher (s)
- Kelly Kozdras
This project developed a model in PowerWorld for a small microgrid being considered to improve reliability in a Washington mountain town. The microgrid utilizes both an existing small hydro generation site and a proposed Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). The transient stability of this microgrid was analyzed based on the system model, and potential system modifications considered. The software used in the analysis allows for many types of transient contingencies to be analyzed, which will aid in the future modeling and analysis of potential control strategies.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Future Grid
Status
complete
Completion Date
2015
- Pumped Storage
Modeling and Optimizing Pumped Storage in a Multi-stage Large Scale Electricity Market under Portfolio Evolution [HydroWIRES]
Lead Companies
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Lead Researcher (s)
- Rui Bo, rbo@mst.edu
PSH plants have been traditionally designed and used for large scale, daily energy arbitrage, but technological developments and changes to grid needs are making flexible operation more prevalent. Market participation models for PSH have not kept up with these changes, which means that the range of energy and ancillary services that PSH plants can provide are not being optimally allocated. The proposed work aims to develop a prototype enhanced PSH model for incorporation into MISO’s multi-stage market clearing process with proper consideration of the unique characteristics of PSH. Technology Application
Pumped Storage
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Markets
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
TBD
- Conventional Hydro
Modeling Conventional Hydropower Plants to Duplicate Pumped Storage Hydro Operation
Lead Companies
EPRI
Lead Researcher (s)
- Francisco Kuljevan
As interest rises in pumped storage’s role for integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) resources into the grid, a key resource may be overlooked. Conventional hydropower can, and sometimes does, provide ancillary services that mimic pumped storage’s capabilities. This report describes (1) the development and demonstration of an innovative, water-based methodology for analyzing and evaluating alternative energy and ancillary services operations under different market conditions, (2) the results from analyses using the methodology, and (3) recommendations based on results from the analyses. Results are provided from detailed analyses of a hypothetical three-unit hydropower plant operating (a) under cold weather (February) and hot weather (July) conditions; (b) with low, medium low, medium high, and high water budgets; and (c) in three market regions (CAISO, MISO, and NYISO). Across markets, seasons, and water budgets, the daily revenues from co-optimized energy, regulation, and spinning reserves significantly exceed the daily revenues from energy-only operation.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
complete
Completion Date
2020
- Conventional Hydro
Modeling Smart Microgrids for the Developing World with Probabilistic Supply and Demand Inputs
Lead Companies
Carnegie Mellon University
Lead Researcher (s)
- Jesse Thornburg
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Future Grid
Status
complete
Completion Date
2018
- Conventional Hydro
New Hydropower Representation in Production Cost Models
Lead Companies
PNNL
Lead Researcher (s)
- Nathalie Voisin
This project focuses on improving the representation of hydropower in production cost models by informing the plant classification as a function of basin-scale hydrologic conditions, environmental constraints and grid economics signals that affect operational flexibility. The actionable results will provide a foundational basis for improving PCM methods for representing hydropower facilities in the context of the bulk power system’s (BPS) increasing needs for flexibility and evolving markets for grid services.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
TBD
- Conventional Hydro
Outage Planning Maturity Matrix
Lead Companies
CEATI International
Lead Researcher (s)
- #0424
The matrix includes all activities for Outage Planning including the scheduling and impact evaluation of outages in the forecast mode, the evaluation of actual outage impacts computed after the fact, and issues pertaining to efficient communications within the organization.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
complete
Completion Date
2020
- Conventional Hydro
Power Flow and Stability Models [HydroWIRES]
Lead Companies
PNNL, NREL, INL
Lead Researcher (s)
- Abhishek Somani, abhishek.somani@pnnl.gov
Operational needs of U.S. power systems are changing due to increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VER) resources and retirement of conventional fossil fuel-based generation. The nature of grid services, such as inertia and primary frequency response, may also change as more of these services are likely to be provided by inverter-based VERs and batteries. Consequently, the role of hydropower is also expected to change, as it relates to provision of these grid services. Modeling of hydropower plants in power systems analysis has been studied for decades but there are still modeling gaps that are being acutely realized due to the changing nature of power system operations. For instance, the modeling of hydropower resource capabilities in short-term power flow and dynamic stability models, which are used for analysis of system (and resource) response to contingency events, such as loss of a large generator. These modeling gaps need to be addressed urgently to create better opportunities and challenges for hydropower resources in a changing power grid landscape. The project will produce a report on a list of hydro units modeling gaps in steady-state power flow and dynamic stability models, developed through an extensive stakeholder engagement process. Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Renewable Integration
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
TBD
Don’t see your waterpower research?
Have questions about WaRP?
Contact Marla Barnes at: marla@hydro.org