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- Conventional Hydro
Review of Data Screening Methods for Discharge/Inflow Time Series
Lead Companies
CEATI International
Lead Researcher (s)
- #0425
The main objectives of this project are to review/describe/classify data screening methods, identify easily applicable and robust techniques, develop a reference guide to assist users in the selection of data screening methods, and identify emerging techniques for discharge/inflow data screening.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
complete
Completion Date
2020
- Conventional Hydro
Risk-based decision making in reservoir operations
Lead Companies
Bureau of Reclamation
Lead Researcher (s)
- Jordan Lanini
A significant reservoir operations need in Great Plains Region is to rapidly evaluate a large number of potential reservoir inflow scenarios in order to make short- and mid-term operational decisions. These scenarios are currently created manually by adjusting inflow timing and volume within a daily operations spreadsheet. Risk is then assessed qualitatively to make a final operational decision. GP reservoir operators do not have a systematic, risk-based methodology for operational decisions, nor are we aware of any within Reclamation. This results in operators using professional judgment on an ad-hoc basis to evaluate risk. This research will provide a case study for automating and rapidly evaluating numerous potential inflow scenarios, significantly improving staff efficiency. The project will also provide clarity to the decision-making process. The current lack of operational clarity leaves Reclamation management and staff open to criticism, or in the extreme, to lawsuits, if operations damage water users in some manner.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
2021
- Conventional Hydro
Roadmap for Applied Statistical Analysis Techniques for Hydro Generation and Runoff
Lead Companies
CEATI International
Lead Researcher (s)
- #0430
an actionable tool that guides hydro operators to appropriate statistical methods to process the vast amounts of data related to inflow forecasts and runoff determination.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
complete
Completion Date
2020
- Small or Non Conventional Hydro
Small Hydro Interconnection Benchmarking
Lead Companies
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Lead Researcher (s)
- Travis Douville
Deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) has increased in recent years and is anticipated to continue growing in the future. Small hydropower is one of the DERs that is projected to rise, and as this resource grows there is a need for utilities and regulators to consider interconnecting them to the main grid. Connecting DERS to the grid may allow utilities to better manage peak demand, avoid transmission overloads and keep electricity flowing to the customers. An emerging application for renewable DERs is resilience – providing power if a site loses grid electricity. Although these upgrades have the potential to improve resilience, a barrier to their execution are distribution and transmission interconnection processes which have been described as prolonged, opaque, and inconsistent by applicants. On the other hand, utility owners have struggled to understand how to limit strains on both the distribution and transmission grid. To address this gap, a national dataset was developed to summarize different cost drivers and required work that are associated with hydropower projects. This study aims to build a shared understanding that will enhance project selection, limit stranded costs, and benefit interconnection customers as well as the system operators, and ultimately energy consumers. The focus of this study is to find trends within three major queue owners, PJM, PacifiCorp, and Idaho Power Company (IPC) and investigate how network upgrades associated with conductoring, line protection and control, substation modification and construction, and communication infrastructure have an effect on project timeline and cost. This will also help up compare the three different queues and analyze the trends within each one.
Technology Application
Small or Non Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Future Grid
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
TBD
- Conventional Hydro
Software Tool Development to Generate Stochastic Hydraulic Simulations using HEC-RAS
Lead Companies
Bureau of Reclamation
Lead Researcher (s)
- Ari Posner
Implementation of this project will facilitate implementation of probabilistic modeling and reduce time required to implement them, by several orders of magnitude. Stochastic simulation and representation of modeling results as probabilistic is a growing field and identified as an important and valuable effort in many fields of science and engineering (Romanowicz & Beven,1996, 1998, 2003; Aronica et. al., 1998, 2002; Bates et. al., 2004; Hall et. al., 2005; Pappenberger et. al., 2005, 2006). Probabilistic modeling is required for most risk analyses associated with large infrastructure projects. Development of this tool will allow HEC-RAS modelers from the most sophisticated regional efforts to the most simple project implemented at the most local level to enter their calibrated and validated model into this software tool and produce probabilistic results, by doing nothing more than putting in the location of their model program file. This tool could save on the order of weeks of time for any project to develop probabilistic results.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
2021
- Conventional Hydro
Stochastic Energy Scheduling
Lead Companies
University of Washington
Lead Researcher (s)
- Adam Greenhall
Large amounts of wind generation have been added to the power system in recent years. However, wind breaks many of the core assumptions in the process used to schedule energy and is particularly difficult to forecast accurately. Rather than scheduling based on a single forecast, stochastic Unit Commitment (UC) minimizes the expected cost over several wind scenarios for the next day. Stochastic UC is often held up as a solution to help alleviate the high costs related to uncertain renewables. Yet there is no widely accepted method for creating high quality stochastic scenarios. In this dissertation, we examine two wind power scenario creation methods – moment matching and analogs. Moment matching is a general technique where scenarios are synthesized to match a set of statistics or moments. We propose a method for estimating these desired moments based on historical wind data. The analogs method looks back in time to find similar forecasts and uses the matching observations from those analogous dates directly as scenarios. This work proposes and tests a simple analogs method based solely on aggregate wind power forecasts. The performance of these methods is tested on a realistic model of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) power system based on actual data from 2012. UC and dispatch simulations showed modest stochastic savings for the relatively flexible ERCOT model at 25% wind energy penetration. The scenario creation method and number of scenarios had a significant impact on these stochastic savings. Contrary to our hypothesis and the increase in perfect forecast savings, stochastic savings decreased as wind penetration increased to 30%. Stochastic savings are often largely due to a few high cost events during peak load periods; stochastic UC costs may be higher than deterministic UC for extended periods – generally when demand and marginal prices are low. Together these results paint a more nuanced picture of stochastic UC and provide a roadmap for future scenario creation research.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
complete
Completion Date
2013
- Pumped Storage
The Economic Feasibility of Pumped Storage Hydropower
Lead Companies
Washington State University
Lead Researcher (s)
- Lisa Dilley
There is little general modeling research available for evaluating new PSH proposed for development from an economic point of view. This modeling framework enables the analyst to evaluate hypothetical pumped-storage within the generation fleet that it would be built in with limited data requirements on the front end. Using shortest paths optimization and a k-shortest paths technique, a simulation model is developed that demonstrates the potential effects of storage on a thermal generation system. It is shown that these simulation results reproduce analytical economic efficiency conditions, which gives specific insight to the sensitivity of PSH to design choices and wind statistics. It is shown that system marginal cost and total cost can be reduced through operations policies. These results also inform the need for additional data and detailed modeling in the feasibility stages of design
Technology Application
Pumped Storage
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Future Grid
Status
complete
Completion Date
2015
- Conventional Hydro
The Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources and Hydropower Production Capacity of the Upper Colorado River
Lead Companies
Colorado School of Mines
Lead Researcher (s)
- Marina Kopytkovskiy
The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), comprised of the Colorado and Gunnison River basins, is regulated by 17 major reservoirs to provide water supply, flood control, and hydropower. It is the prime water source for much of the western United States, as well as key wildlife and fish habitat. Climate change is an issue of concern on the basin due to the sensitivity of snow accumulation processes that dominate runoff generation within the region. Climate models project an average warming of up to 4o F, coupled with a decline in precipitation falling as snow. There is no numerical consensus of the magnitude of change in precipitation, but there is general agreement that precipitation changes will be exacerbated by increased evapotranspiration rates, reducing overall runoff. This is expected to cause a decline in runoff and hydropower generation capacity. Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UCRB were assessed through a comparison of simulated stream flow, temperatures, and reservoir volumes and storage levels. Future climate conditions derived from climate centers: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-CGCM2.3.2), Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM3.2 T47), and the Center for Climate System Research at the University of Tokyo with the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (MIROC 3.2) under A2 and B1 emission scenarios were compared to historical conditions. From the joint venture of the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and other research and university facilities, bias-corrected constructed dialogues (BCCA) daily downscaled precipitation and climate data was processed and used to drive the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) hydrologic model to simulate future changes in the UCRB. WARMF performs daily simulations of snow and soil hydrology to calculate surface runoff and groundwater accretion to river segments, lakes, and reservoirs. All model scenarios project a reduction in 21st century flows, though the magnitude varies with location and elevation. Results illustrate basin-wide temperature increases at low elevations, with extreme seasonality increasing at high elevation stations in future climate. Reservoir levels in Blue Mesa declined more than 70%, but other reservoirs showed varying results dependent on location and climactic conditions. The resultant climate change scenarios will motivate adaptive watershed planning and management decisions and policies in response a changing climate and mitigate future concerns.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
complete
Completion Date
2015
- Conventional Hydro
TIP 258: Development of a State-of-the-Art Computational Framework and Platform for the Optimal Control of Multi-Reservoir Systems under Uncertainty
Lead Companies
Oregon State University (OSU)
Lead Researcher (s)
- Dennis Mai, BPA
- Dr. Arturo Leon, OSU
The research produced a robust and computationally efficient hybrid and parallelized framework for the real-time operation of multi-objective and multi-reservoir systems that accounts for uncertainty and flexibility. The resulting model could potentially replace the current tool used by BPA for short‐term operation of the FCRPS and be used as the main computational engine for future real‐time operation of this system under different streamflow and load scenarios.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
complete
Completion Date
2015
- Conventional Hydro
TIP 259: Short-Term Hydropower Production and Marketing Optimization (HyProM)
Lead Companies
Deltares USA
Lead Researcher (s)
- Chris Allen, BPA
- Dirk Schwanenberg, Deltares NL
This project advanced a state-of-the-art software infrastructure for short-term management of the FCRPS. It included multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques with a modular, open-source, computationally efficient and multithreaded IT design. The project addressed the need for more precise knowledge of future stream flow, wind reserve, and power load, with a user-friendly tool to integrate those entities. This was vital to solving the multi-objective problem of reservoir management.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Forecasting
Status
complete
Completion Date
2015
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Have questions about WaRP?
Contact Marla Barnes at: marla@hydro.org