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Risk-based decision making in reservoir operations
Lead Companies
Bureau of Reclamation
Lead Researcher (s)
- Jordan Lanini
A significant reservoir operations need in Great Plains Region is to rapidly evaluate a large number of potential reservoir inflow scenarios in order to make short- and mid-term operational decisions. These scenarios are currently created manually by adjusting inflow timing and volume within a daily operations spreadsheet. Risk is then assessed qualitatively to make a final operational decision. GP reservoir operators do not have a systematic, risk-based methodology for operational decisions, nor are we aware of any within Reclamation. This results in operators using professional judgment on an ad-hoc basis to evaluate risk. This research will provide a case study for automating and rapidly evaluating numerous potential inflow scenarios, significantly improving staff efficiency. The project will also provide clarity to the decision-making process. The current lack of operational clarity leaves Reclamation management and staff open to criticism, or in the extreme, to lawsuits, if operations damage water users in some manner.
Technology Application
Conventional Hydro
Research Category
Interconnect Integration and Markets
Research Sub-Category
Hydraulic Optimization
Status
ongoing
Completion Date
2021
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Contact Marla Barnes at: marla@hydro.org