Value of flow forecasts to power system analytics [HydroWIRES]

Hydropower operators use weekly water inflow forecasts to optimize reservoir releases and unit commitment and to meet power grid needs. The accuracy of inflow forecasts, combined with related scheduling adjustments, contracts, and market opportunities, are reflected in a utilities’ revenue. One of the goals of the HydroWIRES Initiative is to quantify the flexibility of hydropower operations and understand its adaptability to changes in water supply, regulation, markets, and power grid needs. In partnership with North Carolina State University and the National Corporation of Atmospheric Research, researchers from PNNL and INL will use inflow forecasts, reservoir and power system models, and case studies to demonstrate the contribution of flow forecast to provide hydropower services to the grid. Flow forecast accuracy metrics, combined with regional power system analytics (including regional economics and generation portfolios), will help detangle the value of incremental improvement in flow forecasts. This research supports DOE in developing strategic partnerships with other institutions to invest in information products and decision-support practices for meeting power grid needs.