We postulate that true FFA uncertainty may be larger than currently appreciated and that different components of the modeling chain such as model choice, parameter values or initial conditions impact FFAs by different amounts. We propose to explore key components of the modeling chain: 1) expanding from one model to a multi-model ensemble, 2) varying model parameters, and 3) varying initial conditions for each model structure. Furthermore, uncertainty and sensitivity characteristics likely vary across hydroclimatic regime. To address this hypothesis, we will use continuous ensemble simulations across model structures with parameter perturbations to drive a stochastic event simulation framework to reveal true FFA uncertainty and understand sensitivities across several case-study basins spanning the hydroloclimatology of the 17 western states.
